What Does Rural Flight Mean for China’s Agriculture?

Where does our grain come from? China has long been self-sufficient in food—otherwise we couldn’t claim to have solved the basic subsistence problem or be aiming for a moderately prosperous society.

If fewer people farm, will harvests shrink? When smallholders exit, land consolidates into the hands of large household farms, cooperatives, and agribusinesses. That concentration actually favors the adoption of new technologies, new varieties, and higher yields and quality—helping both output and food security.

Are we eating from the “old stock”? The state grain reserve holds substantial inventory to ensure safety, but what we eat today is mostly freshly harvested grain. Plenty of aged stock ends up wasted, and some is channeled into school cafeterias just to draw it down.

Will rising grain prices lure more people back to farming instead of migrant work? Grain is a special commodity; its price is jointly regulated by the market and the government. If prices climb too high, inflation destabilizes the economy; if they fall too low, farmers lose the incentive to plant.

I have visited more than ten agricultural companies: some corporate farms, some cooperatives, some large family farms. Aside from the latter, almost none are truly profitable.

Doing agriculture starts with motivating labor. Hire a worker whose family still farms—he may slack off on your fields to save his strength for his own plot.

Scale matters above all. Agriculture is built on economies of scale.

Producing more grain in the future will not hinge on the number of farmers but on agricultural modernization and technological advancement.

Published at: Jul 28, 2019 · Modified at: Jan 14, 2026