Thoughts Sparked by the U.S.–Iran Conflict
Cycle
20200106-20200112
Stocks
Kept holding Ganfeng Lithium A+H. Tesla’s locally built Model 3 is off the line and the Model Y line is coming. MIIT confirmed NEV subsidies end in July but new policies will follow. The U.S.–Iran flare-up also reminded some investors that NEVs are a hedge against energy risk. Multiple positives keep NEVs and lithium batteries climbing.
With stronger pricing power for Chinese lithium players and Tesla’s localization, names like Ganfeng should keep rising; the NEV supply chain could enjoy a golden decade like Apple’s chain (e.g., GoerTek). We stay bullish and keep holding Ganfeng Lithium.
Funds
Past bulls were leverage-driven “water bulls.” This time signals come from foreign inflows and a return of value investing at home; 2020 could see a small bull, and might even be the worst year of the next decade for China’s market.
To earn excess returns in a bull: (1) let great active managers work for you—pick those with long strong records; (2) choose sector/ thematic index funds with upside and hold; (3) find the most actively traded sector in a bull (brokerages). Based on that, we rebalanced per last week’s plan “At the Start of a Big Bull Market,” now completed.
Convertible bonds
Issuing CBs requires regulator approval—an implicit endorsement—boosting future value. CB IPOs have no entry bar, trade in at most 20 sessions, awareness is low, and win rates are high. Participation can be bold.
We won Guoxuan CB (128086) on Dec 17, and sold on first trading day Jan 9 at a 33% premium.
Takeaways
- Interest is the cost of money; return is too. The billionaire bending to pick up 5 yuan: at Yu’e Bao’s yield you must place 50k yuan daily to earn 5 yuan; bending in 10 seconds is a huge risk-free return.
- The U.S.–Iran tensions whipsawed gold and made equities choppy; many feared escalation. A bit of Middle East geopolitical knowledge shows it won’t happen. An investor’s capability boundary and thinking boundary matter; most comes from daily accumulation—so diligent learning is vital.
Published at: Jan 12, 2020 · Modified at: Jan 14, 2026
